Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1439 Southwest	MIA 18:40	DAL 20:36	37%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1374 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	DAL 19:00	37%	9%	0.6%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927	1h 15m Houston	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	5h 00m	95%	89%
Southwest Details →	MIA 12:50 → CMH 15:35WN 2925	3h 35m Columbus	CMH 19:10 → DAL 20:52WN 952	9h 02m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MIA 05:25 → MCO 06:30WN 4086	1h 02m Orlando	MCO 07:32 → DAL 09:20WN 2707	4h 55m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → AUS 19:05WN 336	2h 50m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	7h 05m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	MIA 14:50 → MDW 17:00WN 2930	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 20:40 → DAL 22:55WN 1005	9h 05m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	MIA 15:05 → BWI 17:45WN 2924	3h 28m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	9h 36m	96%	79%
Southwest Details →	MIA 15:30 → MCI 17:50WN 4925	3h 35m Kansas City	MCI 21:25 → DAL 22:55WN 4455	8h 25m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 24m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → AUS 19:05WN 336	47m Austin	AUS 19:52 → DAL 21:02WN 300	5h 02m	56%	43%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 25m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON