tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1226 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1226 MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2828 MIA 17:48 → DFW 19:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time
Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1226 American Flight history → MIA 05:25 DFW 07:40 13% 4% 0.4% 91%
AA 2575 American Flight history → MIA 07:00 DFW 09:19 15% 5% 0.4% 85%
AA 1454 American Flight history → MIA 07:01 DFW 09:09 16% 5% 0.4% 88%
AA 1679 American Flight history → MIA 08:30 DFW 10:49 17% 6% 0.4% 74%
AA 1824 American Flight history → MIA 09:39 DFW 11:57 24% 8% 0.9% 63%
AA 3019 American Flight history → MIA 12:18 DFW 14:39 24% 9% 1.0% 80%
AA 3081 American Flight history → MIA 10:05 DFW 12:17 27% 8% 0.9% 77%
AA 1788 American MIA 12:14 DFW 14:22 27% 9% 1.3% no record
AA 3055 American Flight history → MIA 11:00 DFW 13:15 28% 9% 1.0% 74%
AA 2343 American Flight history → MIA 22:49 DFW 00:59 30% 9% 1.3% 55%
AA 2762 American Flight history → MIA 14:29 DFW 16:51 31% 10% 1.2% 68%
AA 2183 American MIA 14:09 DFW 16:26 33% 10% 1.6% no record
AA 1199 American Flight history → MIA 15:30 DFW 17:50 35% 10% 1.2% 57%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history → MIA 14:33 DFW 16:56 35% 16% 0.9% 77%worse than usual
AA 1134 American MIA 15:39 DFW 17:55 37% 10% 1.2% no record
AA 2289 American MIA 19:29 DFW 21:54 38% 11% 1.2% no record
AA 3104 American Flight history → MIA 19:30 DFW 21:45 38% 10% 1.2% 58%
AA 3259 American Flight history → MIA 16:38 DFW 18:49 39% 11% 1.2% 73%worse than usual
AA 2823 American Flight history → MIA 16:39 DFW 19:04 39% 11% 1.2% 61%
AA 3260 American Flight history → MIA 17:30 DFW 19:56 39% 12% 1.2% 59%
AA 2828 American Flight history → MIA 17:48 DFW 19:59 44% 12% 1.2% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON