Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2387 at 06:25, 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 716 MIA 14:22 → LGA 17:29 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	8%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	14%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	15%	4%	2.3%	90%
AA 2061 American	MIA 09:07	LGA 12:13	22%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 3256 American Flight history →	MIA 09:56	LGA 12:59	25%	5%	1.6%	80%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	30%	7%	0.8%	57%
DL 2346 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:29	LGA 14:34	30%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	31%	8%	0.9%	72%
DL 1498 Delta	MIA 11:36	LGA 14:29	33%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2424 American	MIA 10:14	LGA 13:09	35%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	44%	9%	1.3%	58%
AA 2054 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	LGA 22:05	44%	10%	1.6%	42%
AA 3229 American Flight history →	MIA 12:51	LGA 16:00	46%	11%	1.6%	47%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	MIA 15:22	LGA 18:29	46%	11%	1.6%	48%
AA 952 American Flight history →	MIA 16:25	LGA 19:29	46%	13%	1.6%	53%
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:39	LGA 15:43	46%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 3128 American Flight history →	MIA 17:50	LGA 20:58	46%	11%	1.6%	38%
AA 716 American Flight history →	MIA 14:22	LGA 17:29	50%	12%	1.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON