Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 3039 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3039 Southwest	MIA 06:40	MDW 08:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2930 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 14:50	MDW 17:00	31%	6%	0.5%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MIA 07:15 → STL 09:05WN 2931	1h 45m St Louis	STL 10:50 → MDW 12:04WN 4143	5h 49m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927	2h 10m Houston	HOU 08:55 → MDW 11:20WN 2085	7h 10m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974	3h 35m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	8h 10m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MIA 05:25 → MCO 06:30WN 4086	1h 41m Orlando	MCO 08:11 → MDW 10:06WN 2152	5h 41m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 35m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922	3h 15m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	7h 10m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	MIA 15:30 → MCI 17:50WN 4925	2h 05m Kansas City	MCI 19:55 → MDW 21:20WN 345	6h 50m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	50m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → MDW 22:05WN 107	6h 05m	57%	42%
Frontier Details →	MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405	59m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → MDW 22:03F9 2291	5h 35m	60%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON