Today: AA 2168 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet today AA 2168 MIA 08:00 → MSY 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2196 MIA 20:15 → MSY 21:21 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2168 American Flight history →	MIA 08:00	MSY 09:18	10%	3%	0.3%	97%
MQ 3553 Envoy	MIA 08:30	MSY 09:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 329 American Flight history →	MIA 21:13	MSY 22:32	26%	9%	1.3%	61%
AA 1680 American	MIA 17:04	MSY 18:20	27%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 2552 American Flight history →	MIA 23:05	MSY 00:09	28%	9%	1.3%	64%
AA 2201 American Flight history →	MIA 17:07	MSY 18:17	31%	7%	0.3%	50%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	MIA 20:15	MSY 21:21	36%	10%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON