tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:17 am at Miami)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 8h 15m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 1h 15m Houston HOU 08:00 → ONT 09:21WN 4337 7h 11m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 94% 76%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922 3h 05m Nashville BNA 16:05 → ONT 18:23WN 2987 9h 43m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:01 → DFW 09:07AA 1454 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → ONT 13:24AA 2635 9h 23m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:37 → PHX 09:46AA 1983 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 10:52 → ONT 12:25AA 2661 7h 48m 87% 69%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ONT 12:06AA 2956 9h 41m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 91% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922 55m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 7h 20m 58% 45%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → ONT 09:48AA 1820 7h 23m 54% 44%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374 50m Dallas DAL 19:50 → ONT 21:02WN 4318 7h 02m 42% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON