Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2405 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2405 MIA 08:05 → RDU 10:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1649 MIA 16:42 → RDU 19:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2405 American Flight history →	MIA 08:05	RDU 10:20	16%	5%	1.3%	92%
AA 2101 American	MIA 08:38	RDU 10:53	18%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 3474 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:49	RDU 23:07	21%	8%	0.7%	54%
DL 2992 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:28	RDU 20:53	22%	9%	0.7%	65%
MQ 3710 Envoy	MIA 14:09	RDU 16:27	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MIA 14:34	RDU 16:50	26%	13%	0.9%	61%
AA 2375 American Flight history →	MIA 16:47	RDU 19:06	26%	11%	0.9%	46%
F9 3322 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 15:07	RDU 17:29	27%	16%	1.0%	76%
AA 1286 American Flight history →	MIA 21:47	RDU 23:59	30%	10%	0.9%	62%
AA 1566 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	RDU 21:17	30%	13%	0.9%	69%
AA 1649 American	MIA 16:42	RDU 19:00	30%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON