Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 am at Miami)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1468 at 19:35, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1468 American Flight history →	MIA 19:35	SAT 21:38	41%	9%	0.8%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 15m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	5h 16m	100%	88%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:38 → SAT 13:41AA 1916	8h 01m	97%	81%
American Details →	MIA 07:01 → DFW 09:07AA 1454	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:09 → SAT 13:30AA 1582	7h 29m	100%	78%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	3h 49m Houston	IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819	7h 51m	100%	78%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:47 → SAT 12:11AA 413	6h 11m	97%	77%
United Details →	MIA 13:10 → IAD 15:53UA 2435	1h 52m Dulles	IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869	8h 12m	92%	75%
United Details →	MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852	2h 16m Denver	DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395	9h 11m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	9h 44m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	55m Dallas	DAL 19:55 → SAT 21:00WN 4415	5h 00m	53%	36%
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546	5h 24m	52%	27%
American Details →	MIA 17:48 → DFW 19:57AA 2828	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406	5h 12m	47%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON