Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2021 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2021 MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 483 MIA 09:50 → SLC 12:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2021 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:55	SLC 09:56	7%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 976 Delta	MIA 07:06	SLC 10:07	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 09:50	SLC 12:40	18%	5%	0.6%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 00m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 11m	88%	75%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → SLC 10:35AA 1878	7h 10m	90%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON