Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:53 am at Miami)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:09, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 3380 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:25	TUL 23:43	12%	3%	0.6%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 17:04 → ORD 19:25AA 3304	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 02m	93%	84%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	2h 46m Houston	IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa	7h 22m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	2h 55m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477	7h 14m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	8h 19m	98%	76%
United Details →	MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852	2h 32m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	9h 03m	96%	76%
American Details →	MIA 12:22 → ORD 14:58AA 2910	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 17:00 → TUL 19:06AA 3827 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	91%	76%
United Details →	MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470	3h 57m Houston	IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:00UA 3991 · flown by Mesa	8h 31m	98%	75%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:51 → TUL 18:03AA 4133 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 16:20 → DEN 18:40WN 2926	50m Denver	DEN 19:30 → TUL 22:14WN 2291	6h 54m	64%	51%
American Details →	MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	5h 17m	63%	42%
American Details →	MIA 17:47 → DFW 19:57AA 2828	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:50 → TUL 22:07AA 2014	5h 20m	59%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON