Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1324 at 10:25, 22%.

Safest bet today WN 1324 MKE 10:25 → MCO 14:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5010 MKE 13:00 → MCO 16:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1324 Southwest	MKE 10:25	MCO 14:11	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1168 Southwest	MKE 20:05	MCO 23:50	26%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 4926 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 20:15	MCO 00:10	26%	11%	0.6%	67%
WN 3057 Southwest	MKE 14:25	MCO 18:10	30%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 5010 Southwest	MKE 13:00	MCO 16:45	31%	7%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON