Today: MQ 4014 at 16:13 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–33%.

Safest bet today MQ 4014 MRY 16:13 → PHX 18:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2884 MRY 19:09 → PHX 21:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4014 Envoy	MRY 16:13	PHX 18:16	20%	4%	1.0%	no record
OO 4944 SkyWest	MRY 19:16	PHX 21:16	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 6268 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 16:14	PHX 18:14	31%	9%	0.7%	75%
AA 2884 American Flight history →	MRY 19:09	PHX 21:04	33%	9%	1.3%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON