Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:12 pm at Monterey); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: United via SFO, leaving 15:30, 51% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343	5h 23m	96%	51%
American Details →	MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559	5h 20m	96%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON