Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1062 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1062 MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3046 MSP 09:27 → ATL 13:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 05:20	ATL 08:54	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1046 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:32	ATL 14:04	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 8771 Delta	MSP 11:44	ATL 15:23	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1052 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:26	ATL 11:54	10%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 1039 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ATL 10:32	10%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 1048 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	ATL 16:22	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1032 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:49	ATL 23:44	16%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1026 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:37	ATL 22:28	16%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2021 Delta	MSP 16:40	ATL 20:19	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1028 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:58	ATL 19:41	18%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 1036 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:18	ATL 21:05	18%	3%	0.7%	83%
F9 3046 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 09:27	ATL 13:14	25%	10%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON