Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:32 am at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 8949 Delta	MSP 12:17	BUF 15:25	11%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	14%	6%	0.1%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 10:25 → MDW 11:55WN 4345	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 13:25 → BUF 16:09WN 845	4h 44m	96%	85%
United Details →	MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic	1h 43m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → BUF 23:59UA 3516 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest	4h 18m	98%	84%
United Details →	MSP 09:47 → ORD 11:29UA 1929	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226	5h 54m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	3h 51m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	6h 43m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 37m	99%	80%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 14:27 → BUF 17:22AA 2921	5h 51m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 17:46 → DCA 21:27AA 5416 · flown by PSA	1h 13m Washington	DCA 22:40 → BUF 23:59AA 4131 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON