Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

OH 5416 · MSP → DCA

departs 5:46 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5416 · MSP → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?