Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2961 MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest DL 2962 MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2961 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:30	DCA 23:56	22%	5%	0.1%	71%
DL 1897 Delta	MSP 19:34	DCA 23:07	22%	6%	0.1%	no record
OH 5090 PSA	MSP 18:25	DCA 21:59	23%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 17:46	DCA 21:27	24%	10%	0.7%	39%
DL 2962 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:35	DCA 22:02	25%	7%	0.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON