Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:02 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1555 Delta Flight history →	MSP 16:02	GRR 18:26	19%	7%	0.1%	82%
DL 1711 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	GRR 23:59	24%	7%	0.1%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 17:35 → DTW 20:21DL 1435	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 23:13 → GRR 00:14 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	5h 39m	100%	87%
United Details →	MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45WN 2971	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → GRR 23:25WN 4113	6h 10m	99%	73%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 20:08 → GRR 22:10UA 2472	5h 54m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	6h 56m	96%	64%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	1h 42m New York	LGA 21:00 → GRR 23:24DL 5659 · flown by Republic	6h 54m	91%	63%
United Details →	MSP 18:41 → ORD 20:30UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:48UA 1819	4h 07m	87%	62%
American Details →	MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	5h 34m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 19:03 → ORD 20:35UA 1237	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m	74%	57%
Southwest Details →	MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115	55m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → GRR 23:48WN 4572	3h 33m	67%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON