Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:57 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5530 at 20:34, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 20:34	RIC 00:04	17%	6%	0.2%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 21:22 → RIC 00:39 +1AA 4698 · flown by Republic	5h 37m	87%	66%
Southwest Details →	MSP 18:00 → BWI 21:25WN 2963	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → RIC 23:54WN 967	4h 54m	89%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON