Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2385 at 18:15, 25%.

Nonstops today


DL 2385 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:15	TPA 22:26	25%	5%	0.4%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45WN 2971	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 20:10 → TPA 23:50WN 2910	6h 35m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	8h 41m	94%	77%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00WN 2962	3h 25m Nashville	BNA 21:25 → TPA 00:20 +1WN 2173	7h 20m	98%	65%
American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 18:46 → TPA 22:45AA 353	5h 42m	91%	65%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	7h 31m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	5h 20m	82%	60%
American Details →	MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:30 → TPA 23:59AA 2256	7h 48m	97%	51%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	56m Atlanta	ATL 22:01 → TPA 23:33DL 8844	5h 15m	80%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10WN 2974	1h 05m St Louis	STL 20:15 → TPA 23:35WN 4619	4h 55m	72%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON