tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:48 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 18:02, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic 2h 20m Chicago ORD 22:30 → XNA 00:26 +1AA 3960 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSP 18:19 → ORD 19:51AA 4746 · flown by Republic 1h 36m Chicago ORD 21:27 → XNA 23:14AA 3941 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 90% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSP 16:51 → DEN 18:17UA 2272 2h 20m Denver DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44UA 5269 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 92% 69%
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest 6h 18m 94% 66%
AmericanDetails → MSP 19:02 → DFW 21:25AA 2406 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 4h 45m 76% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 18:23 → DEN 19:45UA 467 52m Denver DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44UA 5269 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → MSP 19:03 → ORD 20:35UA 1237 55m Chicago ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest 4h 28m 64% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON