Today: DL 1534 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–54%.

Safest bet today DL 1534 MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2972 MSY 17:12 → ATL 20:08 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	18%	4%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	20%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	24%	5%	0.5%	76%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	24%	4%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	26%	5%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:02	ATL 19:45	26%	7%	0.5%	60%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:02	ATL 19:34	27%	6%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
DL 3132 Delta Flight history →	MSY 19:12	ATL 21:54	31%	6%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
DL 678 Delta	MSY 19:25	ATL 21:57	33%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 15:20	ATL 17:50	42%	7%	0.2%	32%
WN 3445 Southwest	MSY 16:50	ATL 19:27	45%	7%	0.2%	no record
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:07	ATL 19:55	51%	19%	1.3%	58%
F9 2972 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:12	ATL 20:08	54%	19%	1.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON