Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 222 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 MSY 07:30 → DCA 11:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2990 MSY 17:20 → DCA 20:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:30	DCA 11:00	16%	3%	0.2%	92%
WN 3103 Southwest	MSY 08:55	DCA 12:28	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSY 10:57	DCA 15:02	19%	16%	1.6%	69%
OH 5232 PSA	MSY 10:16	DCA 14:02	22%	16%	1.3%	no record
AA 967 American Flight history →	MSY 14:07	DCA 17:46	30%	16%	1.8%	61%
AA 3126 American Flight history →	MSY 14:03	DCA 17:39	33%	14%	1.8%	83%worse than usual
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSY 16:35	DCA 20:22	35%	25%	2.1%	49%
OH 5243 PSA	MSY 17:20	DCA 20:57	37%	22%	1.9%	no record
WN 3528 Southwest	MSY 17:00	DCA 20:34	39%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 2990 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:20	DCA 20:55	41%	16%	0.7%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON