Today: AA 468 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–53%.

Safest bet today AA 468 MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4993 MSY 17:19 → DFW 19:14 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 468 American Flight history →	MSY 05:50	DFW 07:40	16%	6%	1.2%	87%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	MSY 09:30	DFW 11:15	31%	9%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:30	DFW 14:11	33%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:42	DFW 09:35	33%	11%	1.2%	77%
AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 14:43	DFW 16:30	34%	6%	1.3%	64%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 09:36	DFW 11:12	35%	10%	1.1%	76%worse than usual
MQ 3591 Envoy	MSY 11:12	DFW 12:59	36%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2158 American Flight history →	MSY 19:59	DFW 21:47	39%	10%	1.8%	41%
AA 1684 American	MSY 11:00	DFW 12:45	39%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MSY 18:01	DFW 19:55	41%	12%	1.3%	40%
AA 379 American	MSY 15:43	DFW 17:24	44%	10%	2.3%	no record
AA 2291 American Flight history →	MSY 19:44	DFW 21:26	46%	12%	1.9%	62%
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:26	DFW 20:02	50%	12%	2.2%	no record
AA 2885 American Flight history →	MSY 12:22	DFW 14:10	50%	14%	1.2%	65%worse than usual
F9 4993 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:19	DFW 19:14	53%	17%	1.8%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON