Today: MX 352 at 19:59 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–39%.

Safest bet today MX 352 MSY 19:59 → LAX 22:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3490 MSY 20:35 → LAX 22:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


MX 352 Breeze	MSY 19:59	LAX 22:10	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:20	LAX 19:18	30%	6%	0.2%	69%
WN 3490 Southwest	MSY 20:35	LAX 22:47	39%	11%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON