Today: WN 559 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–46%.

Safest bet today WN 559 MSY 09:35 → LGA 13:26 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2165 MSY 17:56 → LGA 21:58 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 559 Southwest	MSY 09:35	LGA 13:26	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3008 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 09:50	LGA 13:45	21%	7%	0.2%	76%
DL 2461 Delta Flight history →	MSY 11:49	LGA 15:59	24%	7%	0.3%	73%
DL 2405 Delta	MSY 10:48	LGA 14:38	25%	7%	0.3%	no record
DL 2445 Delta Flight history →	MSY 18:59	LGA 23:13	30%	6%	1.2%	62%
AA 1675 American	MSY 18:13	LGA 22:21	43%	14%	0.6%	no record
AA 2165 American Flight history →	MSY 17:56	LGA 21:58	46%	14%	0.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON