Today: WN 3130 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet today WN 3130 MSY 10:35 → MDW 12:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3131 MSY 17:50 → MDW 20:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3130 Southwest	MSY 10:35	MDW 12:55	12%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4664 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 11:45	MDW 14:00	14%	4%	0.2%	72%
WN 2875 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:15	MDW 19:30	30%	6%	0.3%	17%
WN 3131 Southwest	MSY 17:50	MDW 20:08	30%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON