Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:28 pm at New Orleans); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 17:56, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSY 17:56 → DEN 19:48UA 2216	1h 06m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	6h 03m	75%	56%
Southwest Details →	MSY 18:15 → BNA 19:45WN 4344	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → MSP 00:29 +1WN 4934	6h 14m	93%	53%
United Details →	MSY 17:35 → ORD 20:28UA 3597 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	5h 35m	85%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	5h 56m	67%	35%
Southwest Details →	MSY 17:55 → BWI 21:30WN 2986	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → MSP 00:22 +1WN 4479	6h 27m	66%	32%
Southwest Details →	MSY 19:10 → STL 21:00WN 3021	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → MSP 23:31WN 489	4h 21m	27%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON