Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at New Orleans); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2061 American Flight history →	MSY 16:42	PHL 20:40	30%	8%	0.8%	58%
F9 1274 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 20:14	PHL 00:10	33%	15%	2.3%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSY 17:35 → ORD 20:28UA 3597 · flown by Republic	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	6h 22m	87%	71%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:02 → ATL 19:45DL 924	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 57m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 26m	82%	69%
American Details →	MSY 16:17 → CLT 19:26AA 2174	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	7h 05m	94%	61%
Southwest Details →	MSY 18:15 → BNA 19:45WN 4344	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 +1WN 634	5h 10m	86%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSY 18:26 → CLT 21:33AA 2203	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	4h 56m	52%	34%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:02 → ATL 19:34DL 3146	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	4h 25m	34%	24%
American Details →	MSY 18:42 → CLT 21:38AA 2615	48m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → PHL 00:10 +1AA 1827	4h 28m	33%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON