tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:39 am at New Orleans); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 19:13, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2421 United MSY 14:42 SFO 17:39 28% 10% 0.2% no record
UA 2194 United Flight history → MSY 19:04 SFO 21:45 31% 13% 0.3% 45%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 9h 16m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → IAH 19:02UA 2341 2h 57m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 8h 30m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → MSY 12:34 → ORD 15:20AA 4748 · flown by Republic 2h 39m Chicago ORD 17:59 → SFO 20:46AA 1620 10h 12m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:17 → ORD 16:59UA 1301 3h 05m Chicago ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495 10h 40m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497 2h 56m Dulles IAD 18:46 → SFO 21:39UA 2832 11h 22m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 1h 29m Detroit DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442 8h 55m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:02 → ATL 19:45DL 924 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 34m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:01 → ORD 16:46UA 2179 1h 34m Chicago ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179 9h 17m 92% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSY 19:12 → ATL 21:54DL 3132 46m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 7h 24m 43% 32%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 16:00 → AUS 17:30WN 2979 1h 00m Austin AUS 18:30 → SFO 20:16WN 3439 6h 16m 50% 32%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228 6h 27m 46% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON