Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:46 pm at Myrtle Beach); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3714 at 18:50, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3714 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MYR 18:50	EWR 20:59	17%	6%	1.0%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	8h 24m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	6h 13m	90%	65%
Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	6h 26m	81%	63%
American Details →	MYR 16:16 → CLT 17:32AA 2214	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	5h 56m	91%	62%
American Details →	MYR 12:52 → ORD 14:25AA 3733 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	8h 08m	98%	62%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 03m	92%	61%
Delta Details →	MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	4h 59m	81%	60%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:14AA 5315 · flown by PSA	2h 29m Charlotte	CLT 16:43 → EWR 18:39AA 1811	5h 38m	94%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON