tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Myrtle Beach); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35% (calm day: 24%). Best bet: American via Charlotte, leaving 16:16, 60% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MYR 16:16 → CLT 17:32AA 2214 2h 59m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 5h 49m 88% 60%
DeltaDetails → MYR 19:59 → ATL 21:31DL 1093 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 4h 42m 76% 56%
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 6h 00m 85% 53%
DeltaDetails → MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 4h 47m 79% 53%
UnitedDetails → MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic 51m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 4h 29m 80% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 3h 55m 58% 39%
AmericanDetails → MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886 50m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 3h 26m 26% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON