tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:39 BZN 10:26 8% 3% 0.7% 90%
UA 1538 United Flight history → EWR 09:43 BZN 12:30 13% 3% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 8h 52m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 3h 02m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 9h 14m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 2h 10m Chicago MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139 7h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest 9h 58m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → BZN 10:24DL 1226 6h 24m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:47 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 1h 29m Denver DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248 7h 33m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 1h 03m Chicago ORD 20:15 → BZN 22:43UA 533 7h 18m 69% 61%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 16:31 → SEA 19:48AS 356 52m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 8h 48m 74% 57%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 54m Seattle SEA 11:29 → BZN 14:09AS 285 8h 44m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON