tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 53 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2073 EWR 20:59 → LAX 23:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 6% 2% 0.7% 94%
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 7% 2% 0.8% 89%
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 8% 2% 0.7% 79%
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 9% 2% 0.7% 78%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 9% 3% 0.7% 90%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:55 10% 2% 0.7% 78%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:04 SNA 11:00 10% 4% 0.6% 91%
DL 767 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:49 10% 3% 0.6% 86%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 10% 3% 0.7% 85%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 11% 3% 0.7% 81%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 11% 3% 0.7% 87%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 11% 2% 0.8% 88%
AA 2683 American Flight history → JFK 08:00 SNA 10:58 11% 4% 0.7% 86%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 11% 4% 0.7% 84%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 13% 4% 0.6% 78%
UA 1805 United EWR 08:03 LAX 11:09 13% 4% 0.6% no record
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 13:50 LAX 16:47 13% 3% 0.6% 81%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 13% 3% 0.6% 81%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 14% 3% 0.6% 69%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 14% 6% 0.6% 78%
DL 353 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:05 LAX 19:13 14% 6% 0.7% 72%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:08 LAX 10:08 14% 3% 0.7% 83%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 14:40 LAX 17:48 15% 5% 0.7% 81%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 15% 4% 0.8% 76%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 15% 5% 0.7% 81%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:05 LAX 18:09 15% 5% 0.6% 77%
B6 1123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 14:05 15% 5% 0.7% 79%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:30 LAX 10:25 16% 3% 0.7% 83%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 16% 6% 0.7% 77%
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:05 LAX 20:20 18% 5% 0.7% 78%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:00 LAX 22:19 19% 6% 0.7% 75%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 13:00 LAX 15:58 19% 8% 0.7% 72%
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 19% 7% 0.6% 78%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 20% 6% 0.7% 73%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 20% 5% 0.7% 83%
UA 1350 United Flight history → EWR 14:29 SNA 17:18 21% 8% 0.6% 79%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 20:00 LAX 23:24 22% 6% 0.7% 74%
UA 2238 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 LAX 18:42 23% 8% 0.7% 70%
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 23% 6% 0.9% 73%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:16 LAX 19:20 24% 10% 0.7% 73%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 24% 10% 0.8% 71%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 25% 5% 0.7% 76%
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SNA 20:06 25% 7% 0.7% 87%worse than usual
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:30 ONT 22:36 26% 13% 0.8% 62%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 LAX 20:40 26% 9% 0.7% 72%
UA 712 United Flight history → EWR 20:10 LAX 23:15 28% 9% 0.7% 59%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 30% 10% 0.9% 74%
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:17 BUR 20:35 30% 13% 1.3% 71%
B6 823 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:50 LAX 21:02 30% 12% 0.8% 63%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:35 LAX 22:49 32% 13% 0.8% 54%
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 33% 9% 0.7% 68%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 33% 13% 0.9% 58%
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:59 LAX 23:57 37% 19% 1.2% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 8h 04m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 1h 26m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 8h 10m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON