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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3152 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3152 OAK 06:30 → BUR 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4865 OAK 20:25 → BUR 21:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 3152 Southwest OAK 06:30 BUR 07:56 3% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 3035 Southwest Flight history → OAK 07:05 BUR 08:20 5% 1% 1.0% 91%
WN 3153 Southwest OAK 09:17 BUR 10:43 6% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 3036 Southwest Flight history → OAK 09:15 BUR 10:25 7% 1% 1.0% 95%
WN 3154 Southwest OAK 11:12 BUR 12:37 9% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history → OAK 11:05 BUR 12:15 12% 2% 0.8% 69%
WN 3432 Southwest OAK 13:05 BUR 14:30 15% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history → OAK 15:30 BUR 16:40 19% 5% 0.8% 65%
WN 4977 Southwest Flight history → OAK 17:00 BUR 18:10 19% 6% 0.8% 65%
WN 3037 Southwest Flight history → OAK 13:00 BUR 14:10 19% 3% 0.9% 88%
WN 263 Southwest Flight history → OAK 19:00 BUR 20:15 22% 6% 0.8% 65%
WN 4865 Southwest Flight history → OAK 20:25 BUR 21:40 24% 8% 0.8% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON