Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3558 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3558 OAK 05:25 → LAS 07:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3838 OAK 18:46 → LAS 20:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3558 Southwest	OAK 05:25	LAS 07:01	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2325 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:00	LAS 06:30	5%	1%	0.4%	98%
WN 4395 Southwest	OAK 06:25	LAS 08:03	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 5012 Southwest	OAK 07:30	LAS 09:08	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4348 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 07:35	LAS 09:05	8%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 3168 Southwest	OAK 09:03	LAS 10:39	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2374 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:00	LAS 10:30	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 2845 Southwest	OAK 09:53	LAS 11:28	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5053 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:20	LAS 11:50	15%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 369 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 22:10	LAS 23:50	16%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 5051 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:15	LAS 21:55	18%	5%	0.6%	32%
WN 4503 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 21:05	LAS 22:40	19%	5%	0.6%	42%
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 10:12	LAS 11:59	22%	9%	2.1%	no record
WN 2074 Southwest	OAK 12:18	LAS 13:55	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2205 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:15	LAS 13:50	24%	3%	0.6%	67%
WN 4693 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:10	LAS 19:45	25%	6%	0.6%	54%
WN 577 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:30	LAS 16:05	26%	6%	0.6%	54%
WN 2248 Southwest	OAK 14:16	LAS 15:52	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:45	LAS 18:20	28%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:37	LAS 19:14	28%	6%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
WN 4413 Southwest	OAK 16:36	LAS 18:11	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3838 Frontier	OAK 18:46	LAS 20:33	33%	16%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON