Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2419 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2419 OAK 06:50 → LAX 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 2396 OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2419 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:50	LAX 08:15	5%	1%	0.6%	76%
WN 3608 Southwest	OAK 07:15	LAX 08:42	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4903 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:15	LAX 10:40	10%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3512 Southwest	OAK 10:01	LAX 11:26	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4978 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:20	LAX 14:45	21%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 155 Southwest	OAK 13:20	LAX 14:45	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4229 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:30	LAX 18:55	22%	6%	0.5%	72%
WN 3053 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:00	LAX 17:25	24%	6%	0.5%	55%
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:45	LAX 21:10	25%	6%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON