Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:19 am at Oakland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 35m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 10m Denver	DEN 12:50 → MIA 18:42WN 3404	7h 27m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	55m Austin	AUS 11:50 → MIA 15:40WN 362	7h 10m	84%	74%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	1h 20m Houston	HOU 21:00 → MIA 00:30 +1WN 4859	7h 35m	84%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON