Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:48 pm at Oakland); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3903 at 17:05, 17%.

Nonstops today


DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:57	17%	6%	0.2%	92%
WN 2169 Southwest	OAK 20:25	SLC 23:15	40%	9%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 14:30 → LGB 15:55WN 2951	2h 10m Long Beach	LGB 18:05 → SLC 20:56WN 1450	5h 26m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	3h 57m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425	6h 57m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274	3h 41m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	6h 43m	100%	61%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:30 → LAS 16:05WN 577	2h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 19:00 → SLC 21:26WN 2424	5h 56m	97%	53%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 33m Denver	DEN 20:53 → SLC 22:23WN 4270	6h 28m	98%	51%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → PHX 18:45WN 878	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 21:30 → SLC 00:10 +1WN 4792	6h 25m	98%	49%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 19:07 → SLC 22:14AS 3298 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	82%	36%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:26AS 3311 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m San Diego	SAN 18:56 → SLC 22:04AS 3017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	95%	24%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 20:15 → LAS 21:55WN 5051	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	4h 05m	71%	43%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274	1h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	4h 18m	69%	40%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:15 → SAN 15:45WN 3076	1h 16m San Diego	SAN 17:01 → SLC 20:02WN 1085	4h 47m	60%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON