Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:55 pm at Oakland); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3903 at 17:05, 22%.

Nonstops today


DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:57	22%	8%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
WN 2169 Southwest	OAK 20:25	SLC 23:15	47%	14%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274	3h 03m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425	6h 05m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → PHX 18:45WN 878	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 21:30 → SLC 00:10 +1WN 4792	6h 25m	97%	59%
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:10 → LAS 19:45WN 4693	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	6h 10m	98%	52%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	5h 10m	97%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → PHX 18:45WN 878	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 20:05 → SLC 22:49WN 899	5h 04m	75%	39%
Southwest Details →	OAK 20:15 → LAS 21:55WN 5051	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	4h 05m	65%	35%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274	1h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	4h 18m	61%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON