Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3084 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3084 OAK 06:45 → SNA 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3089 OAK 18:35 → SNA 20:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3084 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:45	SNA 08:10	4%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 3204 Southwest	OAK 07:15	SNA 08:44	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest	OAK 08:31	SNA 10:00	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4927 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:30	SNA 10:00	7%	1%	0.6%	86%
WN 1240 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:00	SNA 11:25	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 3086 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:05	SNA 13:35	13%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 4953 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	SNA 22:05	14%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 3087 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:55	SNA 15:25	19%	3%	0.6%	76%
WN 3088 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:30	SNA 17:55	20%	5%	0.6%	60%
WN 3089 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:35	SNA 20:05	20%	3%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON