tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:04 pm at Omaha); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4470 Southwest Flight history → OMA 12:20 DCA 15:45 20% 3% 0.1% 57%
WN 3245 Southwest OMA 13:06 DCA 16:02 26% 4% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 13:40 → MSP 15:02DL 3848 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 7h 22m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:05 → ORD 17:46AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 3h 17m Chicago ORD 21:03 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514 7h 09m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50WN 4094 2h 55m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 6h 19m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:40 → MSP 19:04DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 5h 16m 91% 72%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 2h 40m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 6h 41m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → OMA 12:22 → LGA 16:11DL 5415 · flown by Endeavor 3h 04m New York LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic 7h 37m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → OMA 12:57 → ORD 14:50UA 5587 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Chicago ORD 17:17 → DCA 20:23UA 2761 6h 26m 93% 67%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:15 → BNA 18:00WN 3126 2h 15m Nashville BNA 20:15 → DCA 23:03WN 4843 5h 48m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 12:06 → DFW 14:00AA 2226 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:11AA 2520 6h 05m 75% 53%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 55m Chicago ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369 4h 57m 68% 48%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 01m 61% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON