tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:39 am at Omaha); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1148 at 15:05, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1148 United OMA 15:05 IAH 17:38 16% 4% 0.2% no record
UA 6259 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record OMA 14:58 IAH 17:25 16% 8% 0.0% 84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OMA 11:23 → ORD 13:15UA 600 2h 50m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 7h 47m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → OMA 12:57 → ORD 14:50UA 5587 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 7h 53m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 6h 47m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → OMA 11:30 → DEN 12:26UA 5594 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 7h 40m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 2h 57m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 7h 46m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 8h 22m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → OMA 13:40 → MSP 15:02DL 3848 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 7h 55m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → OMA 13:48 → DEN 14:35UA 1195 3h 30m Denver DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791 7h 48m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → OMA 18:33 → ATL 22:00DL 2364 48m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 5h 24m 71% 47%
AmericanDetails → OMA 19:46 → DFW 21:44AA 2232 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023 4h 23m 71% 45%
AmericanDetails → OMA 19:28 → DFW 21:21AA 2270 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914 4h 30m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON