tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:44 pm at Omaha); 4 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5102 at 16:57, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5102 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → OMA 16:57 LGA 20:46 31% 8% 0.4% 71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 3h 03m Chicago ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827 7h 13m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:04 → ORD 17:45AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 2h 14m Chicago ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679 6h 17m 100% 69%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50WN 4094 1h 55m Chicago MDW 19:45 → LGA 23:00WN 4120 5h 35m 94% 58%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:15 → BNA 18:00WN 3126 2h 05m Nashville BNA 20:05 → LGA 23:25WN 2144 6h 10m 92% 56%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 17:15 → STL 18:30WN 3365 1h 25m St Louis STL 19:55 → LGA 23:25WN 4684 5h 10m 88% 49%
AmericanDetails → OMA 17:03 → CLT 20:41AA 3115 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 21:55 → LGA 23:57AA 2031 5h 54m 79% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 51m Chicago ORD 17:56 → LGA 21:05UA 2458 4h 52m 60% 35%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:04 → ORD 17:45AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 46m Chicago ORD 18:31 → LGA 21:40AA 774 4h 36m 51% 29%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:19 → DFW 18:13AA 2269 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:00 → LGA 23:24AA 1375 6h 05m 22% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON