Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 209 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 209 OMA 05:05 → MDW 06:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4094 OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 209 Southwest	OMA 05:05	MDW 06:42	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4504 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 05:25	MDW 06:50	3%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 4316 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 08:20	MDW 09:45	5%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 3253 Southwest	OMA 10:32	MDW 12:08	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1655 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 10:55	MDW 12:20	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1306 Southwest	OMA 13:47	MDW 15:25	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 496 Southwest	OMA 16:01	MDW 17:39	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 16:25	MDW 17:50	17%	3%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON