Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3255 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3255 OMA 06:10 → PHX 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2227 OMA 18:29 → PHX 19:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3255 Southwest	OMA 06:10	PHX 06:59	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
MQ 3830 Envoy	OMA 14:17	PHX 15:27	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4835 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 07:20	PHX 08:05	8%	1%	0.2%	93%
OO 6188 SkyWest	OMA 08:09	PHX 09:19	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 3998 Southwest	OMA 11:40	PHX 12:25	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 4893 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:15	PHX 09:12	13%	4%	0.4%	93%
WN 2984 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 12:10	PHX 12:50	15%	2%	0.5%	71%
WN 3256 Southwest	OMA 17:50	PHX 18:35	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2706 Southwest	OMA 21:00	PHX 21:47	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3137 Southwest Flight history →	OMA 21:20	PHX 22:05	22%	5%	0.5%	50%
AA 2227 American Flight history →	OMA 18:29	PHX 19:11	26%	4%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON