tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Omaha); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4905 at 15:45, 51%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4905 Southwest Flight history → OMA 15:45 SAN 16:55 51% 14% 0.3% 42%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:50 → SLC 19:31DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 8h 00m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:40 → MSP 19:04DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 7h 50m 94% 66%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 3h 00m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SAN 22:34UA 1531 9h 21m 95% 59%
UnitedDetails → OMA 17:27 → DEN 18:15UA 1943 2h 50m Denver DEN 21:05 → SAN 22:44UA 2395 7h 17m 95% 58%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:04 → ORD 17:45AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 3h 07m Chicago ORD 20:52 → SAN 23:33AA 1785 9h 29m 100% 56%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:25 → MDW 17:50WN 4094 3h 35m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAN 23:32WN 4285 9h 07m 100% 53%
UnitedDetails → OMA 19:00 → DEN 19:58UA 5316 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 21:00 → SAN 22:25UA 1835 5h 25m 77% 46%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 9h 01m 92% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 19:29 → DFW 21:22AA 2270 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 6h 30m 59% 27%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 19:30 → DEN 20:10WN 3050 55m Denver DEN 21:05 → SAN 22:29WN 3408 4h 59m 56% 25%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:19 → DFW 18:13AA 2269 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:02 → SAN 20:03AA 1243 5h 44m 26% 8%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON