tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:53 pm at Omaha); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:50, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:50 → SLC 19:31DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 8h 09m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:40 → MSP 19:04DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 8h 18m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → OMA 17:27 → DEN 18:15UA 1943 2h 55m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 43m 95% 59%
AmericanDetails → OMA 18:25 → ORD 20:37AA 4724 · flown by Republic 1h 26m Chicago ORD 22:03 → SEA 00:42 +1AA 2392 8h 17m 89% 56%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 9h 59m 94% 39%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 18:10 → DEN 18:55WN 1709 2h 15m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856 7h 00m 85% 37%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → OMA 20:30 → LAS 21:25WN 2844 52m Las Vegas LAS 22:17 → SEA 00:50 +1WN 2409 6h 20m 57% 27%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 19:30 → DEN 20:10WN 3050 1h 00m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856 5h 40m 52% 23%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 18:10 → DEN 18:55WN 1709 55m Denver DEN 19:50 → SEA 21:50WN 1716 5h 40m 49% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON