Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 1699 ONT 10:54 → PDX 13:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 2456 ONT 17:30 → PDX 20:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 1699 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 10:54	PDX 13:09	14%	4%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
QX 2082 Horizon	ONT 11:29	PDX 13:59	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	ONT 17:30	PDX 20:01	20%	8%	1.3%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON