Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:38 pm at Ontario)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 17:48	STS 19:27	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 3086 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:43	STS 20:14	21%	6%	0.8%	88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 17:30 → PDX 20:01AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 44m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON