Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 5620 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 5620 ORD 06:47 → CAE 10:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 750 ORD 13:55 → CAE 17:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5620 SkyWest	ORD 06:47	CAE 10:07	13%	7%	1.2%	no record
MQ 4112 Envoy	ORD 13:27	CAE 16:38	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:34	CAE 16:43	14%	3%	1.2%	82%
AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:14	CAE 23:19	15%	6%	1.3%	76%
OO 750 SkyWest	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:00	25%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 4528 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:10	CAE 10:28	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4523 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:05	23%	10%	2.8%	77%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON